Frustrating Pattern for Snow Lovers

Ask any youngster from my many past school visits and they'll tell you about my passion for snow. It's what hooked me on weather in the 5th grade, and to be honest, that 5th grader still burns a fire inside of me every Winter. Of course I realize there are some folks (mainly adults) who rather see a minimal amount of snow for driving purposes or kids being off from school. And after all, we are in the South where the low frequency of winter storms dictates a certain unease every time a potential winter forecast develops. Just watch our highways and interstates bog down as soon as snowflakes are a flying or sleet pellets are bouncing off the pavement. I've never seen a busier man than our resident traffic expert Chuck Roads, trying to keep up with accidents around the region and the length of commutes blossoming every 10 minutes! It's something else...

So here we are this week where temperatures will run near normal to slightly below normal. Our 30 year climatological average high this time of year is 57 and we'll be either side of that high this week. But it was just a week ago where it looked as if the pattern this week could be even colder and more promising for snow lovers with a deep trough of cold air buckling all the way into the Southeast, with a decent storm track too. Not ideal but at least decent. The big area of low pressure over New England developed on cue (recall yesterday's chilly gusty winds) but instead of a remaining locked in position across southeast Canada with a constant drain of polar or even arctic air into the eastern half of the country, it's slowly going to move away since we do not have a blocking high to the east of the system. And here it comes...

There it is in our computer models in the medium range forecasts. The massive ridge of high pressure in the Southeast with a healthy supply of warm air while cooler weather develops in the western half of the nation with a big area of low pressure. As far as I can tell, this pattern develops over the weekend and may take us deep into next week. This will do two things... push temperatures a solid 10 to 20 degrees above average and limit our chances for rain as systems move over and around the ridge dragging weakened fronts across the Carolinas. And yes, a similar pattern to what we saw in August, September and even a chunk of October. It's the worst possible pattern change for a snow lover. Looking over some major indices and teleconnecting to the weeks ahead, it appears the ridge will cave with time and we can get back into something at least closer to Winter weather forecasting. Million dollar question, will this happen fast enough for those wishing for a White Christmas?? My enthusiasm is less than stellar but I refuse to close the door on the days before Christmas.

On the flip side, if you enjoy outdoor activities in 'short sleeves'... golf, tennis, mountain biking, hiking and even fishing, afternoon temperatures will be excellent! On cue this morning, John Carter asked me about a weekend round of golf as soon as he saw my 7-day forecast. And finally, don't forget about your heating bill. An above normal pattern of temperatures will reduce your heating bill, in a year in which heating rates figure to run high. Our home heats with gas, you better believe I'll look to save a few dollars with warmer weather. We felt that pinch this Summer with air conditioning utility bills, so a little warm weather this time of year is not all bad. So long as it doesn't stick around too long-hah!

John, how about tee-time around 8:00am Saturday morning?