Weatherman Notebook - Do You See What I See?!

**Friday morning update... this system looks too weak right now Christmas day and with a marginally cold air mass to be much of a threat for Winter weather. Unless something changes in the days ahead, scattered showers or sprinkles with a few wet snowflakes possible for the higher mountains or counties near the Virginia stateline might be as good as it gets. But as said, we're still many days away and I'll be sure to update this entry should something change:) Otherwise, a nice active pattern for the next 10 days with bouts of storminess is excellent news in our drought. **


While on vacation this week, I continue to start my days off with a few cups of coffee and look over weather charts each morning. Unless I'm away from a computer, I never truly leave the weather behind. This helps me a great deal when I come back to work, I feel like I can get right back into my groove of forecasting on-air. I'll be back to work next week as my wife and I will celebrate Christmas together in Charlotte. Well anyway, for those of you visiting our morning show blog, you've already noticed I post occasional weather entries. This entry goes to all my fellow snowlovers with fingers crossed for something close to Christmas... read on:)

First off, I've noticed some major climate indices showcasing a possibility of a more typical Winter pattern over the next 10 to 14 days... at least normal to slightly below normal temperatures. No signs of brutally cold air but cold enough to where you need to monitor passing systems and their tracks. The first of which falls on Christmas day! Two medium to long range computer models are remarkably close in the basic ingredients for a system Christmas day. This boosts my confidence to some extent as two computer models with totally different solutions makes for less than stellar confidence.

This first panel is for late day Sunday of the upcoming weekend. You'll see a ribbon of rain (shades of pink, violet, blue) stretching across the Carolinas into New England. This is the cold front you've heard about coming through over the weekend. Notice the tailend of this front sags into the Gulf of Mexico where it goes stationary.







While this happens, upper level energy will be diving out of the Rockies toward the Gulf with a strong jet stream aloft (river of fast moving air). The combination of the two 'could' be enough to generate an area of low pressure off that old front in the Gulf then move it northeast through the Southeast. This is our more classic track for any hope of Winter weather in our area. This next panel shows the system moving across the Southeast into the Carolinas. We have high pressure to the north of the system with a source of 'just cold enough air' to work with.

This all said, I post this in the spirit of Christmas and to all those asking me about a white Christmas:) Understand, this is many days out and will require numerous tweaks. And honestly, while I won't post all the various charts I look over for space concerns on our blog, the above chart at "face value" features a mixed bag of precipitation across the region because the cold high to the north is marginally cold for a Winter weather event. Many other cooling processes would need to occur to make for frozen precipitation. **If the track of the low is further to the west, it would be more cold rain or pockets of freezing rain... more to the east, possibly more wintry weather. Either way, you just have to love how December is finishing with rounds of storminess coming through during our horrible drought. We're in the midst of an active storm track, so lets keep it coming!
So, lots to watch over the days ahead. They'll be fine tuning and yes, there is always a chance the storm might not materialize being this far out. But lets watch it... Stay tuned...